“They’ll have to go to the well” if they’re to win this one. A phrase used down in Munster and indeed all over Ireland to describe the chances of teams facing into a match they have little hope of winning. Going to the well refers to really emptying the tank and having to go to the well to see what’s left. It is essentially about digging deep to pull out a big performance. Well, (pun intended) let it be said, the wells are going to be bone dry after this weekend in Ireland when Ulster and Munster have finished with them. There’s definitely some water charge joke here but I can’t tap into it.
Llianelli v Ulster
Savaged by injury yet again, Ulster must dig deep to get an
away win this weekend. Credit where it’s due, Ian Humphreys (kicking aside) had
a good game last weekend. He was crucial in 3 of the 4 tries scored and wasn’t
far off the man of the match award. It is expected that Stuart Olding will sit
this one out as Luke Marshall makes his long awaited return to midfield to
partner the impressive Darren Cave from last week. Pienaars effect was very
evident last week and his try was finished like the world class player he is,
so he will continue to cause trouble for the Scarlets. 150/1 they were this
time last week and they’ve been cut a considerable amount to 80/1. Still not
odds that would fill you with hope but regardless of what Paddy Power says,
they’re still in the hunt. They must go out with a positive attitude this week
and worry about winning the game. Although they could probably do with a BP, it
will be important for them not to get obsessed with that too early. They’ll be
up against a side hurting from last week’s defeat but their class should be
enough to see them through. No harm to give kicking duties back to the South
African though.
Verdict: Ulster by 5
Clermont v Munster
Are you comfortable? Good… Where to start! It’s safe to say
that the Munster ship is rocking this week. A first ever defeat to French
opponents on home soil followed up by a front row crisis and breaking news of
JJ Hanrahans apparently imminent departure, are enough to cause great concern
in the Munster camp. Clermont came to Thomond Park last week and made Munster
look like mere mortals. It appeared as if Clermont had already played the
match, watched it back, went back in time, and adjusted accordingly to react to
Munsters flawed game plan. They out kicked, out boxed, out smarted and out
munstered Munster and nobody saw it coming. Why it was inconceivable this time
last week to predict Clermont winning the game says much about Thomond Parks
record and nothing about their form thus far this season. Static ball carriers,
loose kicking and predictable backline moves played right into the visitor’s
hands as history was created for all the wrong reasons in Limerick last
Saturday night.
So the objective is clear, go to France and right the wrongs
of last week. Seems straight forward, but just how capable of change are they
in the space of a week?
The good news is, Robin Copeland loos set to be fit and will
add some much needed ball carrying ability to a light bench.
The bad news is, both James Cronin and Dave Kilcoyne are
struggling for fitness which has the potential to kill the game before it even
starts.
For all their dominance last week, we must remember that Clermont
were one accurate lineout and maul away from leaving only with a draw.
It’s also fair to say that Clermont were so good last week,
they occasionally crept offside and with Nigel Owens refereeing this weekend,
hopefully that will be picked up on should it happens again.
Munster have played Clermont in France a few times in the
last couple of seasons and there has never been more than a score in it at the
end up. Granted this could be a more depleted squad than ever before, but brain
and brawn have always been the key ingredients when Munster have had to dig
deep in the past. They have the players capable of causing an upset, it’s the
game plan that is really under question.
Munster play a high pressure game. There’s not much rugby
involved. But how effective is a high pressure game when the opposition score a
try in the first 30 seconds of the match? Pressure off, right?
As already alluded to, they’ve got to the well and find
something a bit different than anything they’ve shown this year. Could JJ and
Smith fill the centres for example? Is there a case for throwing caution to the
wind and having a go out wide with the likes of Felix and Zebo? Being
realistic, all is not lost if they can take a losing BP from this game. That
would then leave them in the position of having to beat Saracens away from
home. That game would be in January and all going well, they’ll have less of an
injury list. The most noteworthy of those being Keith Earls who has the
potential to bring a touch of dynamism and class to the centre.
It is always in the face of adversity when Munster are at
their best. Both Murray and Keatley will be keen to make up for their shoddy
displays last week, while the pack won’t have liked being bullied at home.
Paddy is offering a handicap of 10 points in favour of Clermont and truth be
told it’s hard to argue with that. Jim McGuiness once said every game is there to be
won. He was right. This is Munster, this is their European Cup season on the
line and when Sunday evening rolls around, let’s hope the Well has one last sup
in it.
Verdict: Clermont by 7 or less
