Keep Calm and score 4 tries.. and qualify

Simple advice for the Irish sides this weekend

Ideally, we want Toulon to stop Montpellier (who will be without their captain) from qualifying. That way, we can have 3 irish sides in the latter stages of the competition.

Ulster

Having already qualified for the knockout stages, Ulster will look to get a win in Castres to gurantee a quarter final at Ravenhill. They sit top of their pool on 19 points and could be equalled by Northampton however they would still top the group having a better head-to-head. Thats irrelevant though, this Ulster team have been one of the stand out performers in the competition this year and I fully expect them to beat a disinterested Castres team and secure a home QF. I also expect Northampton to reach 19 points but their chances of qualifying are very slim even they do get to 19 points.

Leinster

It's quite simple here, they can't top their group, so a runners up spot is all they have in sight. What Leinster must do is firstly beat Exeter and beat them scoring tries. Having gone for it last week right from the kick off, they will go into this weeks encounter in a confident mood. They were brash last week choosing to kick for the corner on occasions were 3 points were on offer, but it paid off and they scored 5 tries leaving them just 1 behind Munster in total. They travel to England this weekend to face Exeter who gave them a tough time at the RDS. That was a different Leinster side though, and this weekend they should be at full strength and showing signs of the form that saw them crowned European champions last year. I expect Leinster to go to Exeter and deliver one of their best performances this year. Question is, will it be enough to see them through to the knockout stages?

Munster

Munster have the advantage of playing on Sunday, when they will know exactly what is required to qualify. Assuming Montpellier manage to get at least 2 points from their Toulon game ( anything will do, a win, draw, loss by 7 having scored more than 4 tries etc.) then there will be only 1 runner up spot left. Then it gets interesting with Munster & Leinster the only 2 teams who can finish on 20 points battling it out for last place. Currently Munster have scored 9 tries in this while Leinster have scored 8. Should Montpellier qualify and Musnter and Leinster both end up on 20 points, it will come down to who has scored more tries. To put it simply, as long as Munster get a bonus point win and equal what Leinster do this weekend, they'll qualify.
Munster haven't been playing well and the absolutely farcicle situation with O'Gara being cited will not help matters, but they've been in this familiar position before (or atleast the supporters have) in 2003 when Gloucester rolled into town and the "Miracle Match" took place. Can we expect the same of this current crop of players though? Sunday will tell a tale.

Zebo's try scoring abilities will be vital on Sunday as Munster need atleast 4 tries to qualify

Ruck-That TOP 8 Prediction

(1) Harlequinns                        28pts.

(2) ASM Clermont Auvergne   28pts.

(3) Toulon                                27pts.
(4) Ulster                                  24pts.
(5) Saracens                             23pts.
(6) Leicester Tigers                   22pts.
(7) Leinster                               20pts.
(8) Munster                              20pts.